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(202) 547-7610
November 10, 2008
Contact: Matt Angle
On the web at LoneStarProject.net
Democrats Advance in Texas
Good candidates and careful targeting led to key victories
While immediate
attention is understandably focused on the historic election of Barack Obama
as our President, the importance of Democratic gains in Texas should not be
overlooked. In virtually every political jurisdiction that Democrats
targeted and funded adequate, they won.
- Texas State House – For the second cycle in a row, Democrats made up
significant ground in the Texas State House, winning a net three
seats. The State House now stands at 74 Democrats, 75 Republicans
and one race still undecided subject to a recount. It is very
likely that Republican Speaker Tom Craddick will be deposed.
Should Democrats prevail in the recount and draw to a 75/75 tie, it is
possible that the new Speaker will be a Democrat.
- Key Urban Counties – Democrats won major victories and are quickly
establishing our party as the dominant force in urban Texas politics. In
Harris County where Republicans had previously held every single
county-wide office, Democrats won 23 of 27 judicial races and captured
the Sheriff’s office. In Dallas County, Democrats built upon the 2006 sweep
by winning three additional judicial seats, claiming the Tax
Assessor-Collector’s Office and re-electing the Democratic Sheriff by a
comfortable margin.
- Texas State Senate – Democrats defeated a sitting Republican incumbent
for the first time in a decade when Democrat Wendy Davis beat Republican
Kim Brimer in Fort Worth-based Senate District 10. Democrats could
claim an additional Senate seat should Chris Bell win a December run-off
in Bay Area Senate District 17.
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Texas State House – Virtual Parity
Net Plus 3 (maybe 4)
Democrats captured six Republican held seats while yielding three seats for
a net gain of three. Another Democratic challenger ended Election Day
only 29 votes down, and a recount is expected. If the Democratic
candidate is seated, then the Texas State House will be split evenly at 75
seats apiece. Whether tied or with a one seat Republican Majority,
the current Texas House Speaker, Tom Craddick will likely be replaced.
The winner is not yet determined in Irving based HD 105. Democrat Bob
Romano trails Republican Linda Harper-Brown by just 29 votes in a race
where over 40,000 ballots were cast. Provisional and overseas ballots will
be counted on Monday, November 10, 2008. A formal recount will likely be
ordered after these ballots are tabulated.
Democrats lost three seats in the Texas House - Juan Garcia (HD32 – Corpus
Christi), Dan Barrett (HD97 – Fort Worth), and Donnie Dippel (HD17 – La
Grange). Each of these districts was drawn to the advantage of the
Republican candidate. As a point of political reference, John Kerry won an
average of just 35% of the vote in the three districts.
Republican Seats Captured
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District
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Democrat
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Percentage
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Republican
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Percentage
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52
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Diana Maldonado
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48.6%
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Bryan Daniel
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47.4%
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78
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Joseph E. Moody
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51.5%
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Dee Margo
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45.1%
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96
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Chris Turner
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51.3%
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Bill Zedler (I)
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46.6%
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101
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Robert Miklos
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50.6%
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Mike Anderson
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49.4%
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102
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Carol Kent
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53.0%
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Tony Goolsby (I)
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47.0%
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133
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Kristi Thibaut
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50.6%
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Jim Murphy (I)
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49.4%
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Democratic Seats
Lost
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District
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Democrat
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Percentage
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Republican
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Percentage
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17
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Donnie Dippel
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42.8%
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Tim Kleinschmidt
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54.0%
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32
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Juan Garcia III
(I)
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46.8%
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Todd Hunter
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50.1%
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97
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Dan Barrett (I)
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42.7%
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Mark M. Shelton
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55.4%
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Winner Not Yet
Determined
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District
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Democrat
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Percentage
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Republican
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Percentage
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105
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Bob Romano
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48.7%
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Linda
Harper-Brown (I)
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48.7%
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See the full
results here
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Key Urban Counties
Harris County
Democrats broke the Republican stranglehold on Harris County by winning 24
of 27 contested judicial races. Harris County overwhelmingly elected Adrian
Garcia as County Sheriff and elected Vince Ryan as County Attorney. Barack
Obama carried Harris County winning 50.41% of the vote. U.S. Senate
Candidate Rick Noriega did even better winning 50.69% of the vote.
Democrats had a 47,162 straight ticket vote advantage in Harris County.
This is an enormous swing from 2004 when the Republicans had a 45,358 vote
advantage in Straight Ticket voting.
Harris Democrats Straight Ticket Advantage
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Votes
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Percent of Straight Ticket
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Straight
Democratic
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390,444
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52.92%
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Straight
Republican
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343,282
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46.53%
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Dem Advantage
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47,162
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6.39%
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Dallas County
Democrats protected and expanded upon their 2006 gains in Dallas County. In
addition to adding two State House Seats, Democrats held on in hotly
contested races in HD 106 and 107, reelecting Kirk England and Allen
Vaught. Sheriff Lupe Valdez was reelected with 54.7% of the vote. Democrats
also won all the contested judicial races electing Ken Molberg and Eric
Moye among others.
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Office
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Democrat
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Vote %
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Republican
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Vote %
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Sheriff
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Lupe Valdez
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54.6%
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Lowell Cannaday
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45.3%
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Tax
Assessor-Collector
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John R. Ames
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53.1%
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David Childs
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46.8%
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Dallas County
Judicial Average*
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Democratic
Judges
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58.3%
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Republican
Judges
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41.7%
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*Dallas
County Judicial Average is an average of the Dallas District and Criminal
Court Races.
Dallas Democrats Straight Ticket Advantage
Straight Ticket Votes made up more than 64% of all the votes cast.
Democrats had a 101,346 vote advantage in straight ticket voting.
|
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Votes
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Percent of Straight Ticket
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Straight
Democratic
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289,092
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60.3%
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Straight
Republican
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187,746
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39.2%
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Dem Advantage
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101,346
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21.1%
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See Harris County results here and Dallas County results here
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Texas State Senate
Net Plus 1 (maybe 2)
As the Lone Star Project
forecast more than a year ago, Republican State Senator Kim
Brimer (SD10) could not hold his seat against a strong mainstream
Democratic opponent. In fact, Wendy Davis beat Kim Brimer becoming the
first Democrat to defeat a sitting Republican State Senator in a decade.
Davis won 49.9% of the vote in a District where George W. Bush won almost
60% of the vote in 2004
Chris Bell is headed to a runoff election in Senate District 17. The
November 4th contest was technically a special election, which required a
candidate to win more than 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff. Chris Bell
easily ran first with 39 percent, but fell short of the 50 percent
threshold because a Tom Craddick backed stalking horse Democrat pulled 13
percent. The two Democrats combined received over 52% of the vote. Bell now
heads to a runoff with Republican Joan Huffman who garnered just 25.2%.
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District
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Democrat
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Percentage
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Republican
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Percentage
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10
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Wendy R. Davis
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49.9%
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Kim Brimer (I)
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47.5%
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17
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Chris Bell*
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38.4%
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Joan Huffman
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26.1%
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*Runoff
expected in early December
See the full results here
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DeLay still dragging Texas down
The loss of
incumbent Congressman Nick Lampson and the failure of two high quality
Democratic challengers to break through in very tough districts is a
reminder of the extreme Republican bias built into the Texas congressional
map hand drawn by Tom DeLay in 2003. DeLay’s redistricting map resulted in
a loss of 85 years in Texas seniority after the 2004 elections and has left
Texas with arguably the weakest large state congressional delegation in the
Country.
Lampson mounted a heroic effort to hold CD22, but was the top target of
National Republicans and could not hold the heavily Republican district.
Democrats Michael Skelly in CD7 and Larry Joe Doherty in CD10 ran
aggressive campaigns, but could not overcome the partisan Republican bias
of the DeLay map. As a bright spot, though, incumbent Ciro Rodriguez was
able to hold his CD23 seat against a well funded opponent.
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Statewide Opportunities Looming
As a result of the targeted and systematic approach taken over the last two
election cycles, Democrats are now positioned to make a realistic effort to
compete for state-wide offices in 2010.
This year, Barack Obama did considerably better than John Kerry did in
2004. Obama received 685,000 more votes than Kerry and won 5.5% more
of the vote than Kerry. Where Democrats were competing and investing
resources, such as in Harris County and Dallas County, Obama won a majority
of the votes.
In the coming weeks as 2008 election data becomes available, the Lone Star
Project will conduct an in-depth analysis of the opportunities for
Democrats in 2010 statewide elections and make recommendations on the
approach potential statewide Democratic candidates should take to capture
statewide office.
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Voters
|
Percentage
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2004
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Kerry
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2,832,704
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38.22%
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Bush
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4,526,917
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61.08%
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2008
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Obama
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3,518,082
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43.70%
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McCain
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4,463,907
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55.38%
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Difference
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Dem
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685,378
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5.5%
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Rep
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-63,010
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-5.7%
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